1 year anniversary

It's been one year from blogging. Nothing to shout of, unclepicks' profit stood at 6.37% for the last 12 months. The low profit was due to low exposure to stocks, about average $60k exposed to stocks, while the remaining sitting safely on FD. Based on $60k, the profit would be 10.62%


As for upcoming year 2010-2011, unclepicks will be more focusing on more solid counters. i.e. recent picks like MFLOUR and BJTOTO. This would better blend into busier lifestyle, to focus more time on other activities, while not affecting the performance of stockmarket investment.

Impressive quarter reports

Citigroup, IBM, GS, Coca-Cola, Apple and Yahoo all delivered impressive results.  Bull days are over? not quite..

Let's continue to monitor the market. Unclepicks is not buying nor selling at the moment. Portfolio carries ~60% stocks.

Quarter reports

FAVCO, LHH, YTLPOWR = good quarter reports.

MUHIBAH, IJM, SCOMIMR, HUAAN = so so quarter reports, but sustainable.

*SCOMIMIR's huge loss was affected by goodwill impairment loss(one time off).

Market has no direction. But, one thing for sure, only dispose your stocks during a good rally. At this sideline time, just do nothing when there is nothing to do.

IRIS secured RM259m Dhaka contract

IRIS has just secured another RM259 millions project in Dhaka, a JV project with Data Edge LTd and Polish Security Printing Works.

Let's see if the market sentiment is good enough for IRIS to climb above 0.20 cent tomorrow. (Bought: 0.155 on 12/2009, TP: >30% gain).

TAS Offshore, a gem or a sand?

There has been concern that the TAS balance sheet might be unhealthy, due to massive increase in trade and receivables and low cash on hand in previous quarter.

But.. but.. neither the stock performance nor announcement hints for unexpected events, like what LCL encountered.

Just recently on December 2009,  TAS Offshore delivered eighth vessel to Zakher Marine. And now, crude oil price stood at ~$83.

At this bullish market, nobody is going to talk about the receivables, but the earning!

Unclepicks chose to hold till the next quarter report before planning for next action. TAS quarter report will be out real soon, previous quarter released on 19/10/2009.

The journey with LHH $$$$, thanks to speculators

You might be aware that unclepicks has not been picking up much stocks since 01 Jan 2010; the date when the rally started.

The reason is real simple, why buy when majority people are buying? No doubt, it's human nature to follow the crowd. But in stocks, you can't really be a winner, if you are just an ordinary people standing amongst the crowd.

So, what about Technical Analysis that tells you when to buy stocks? Technical analysis often comes too late, when they discovered the patterns of uptrend. The risk is a lot higher, as the patterns often show the gains of the past few days, which can be reversed easily. Not just that, some might be so stressful and have sleepless nights if the stocks they bought reversed.

Well, the bottom line: Technical analysis is for the full time techinical experts, and not for average joes like you and me.

Take a look at Alex Lu's post today, a technical post:
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2010/01/lhh-speculative-play-developing.html

LHH today went up high at 1.470, and came all the way down to 1.400. If you are buying today, I'm not sure if you are going to a winner or loser. The price has moved up so high but in so short time. However, one thing for sure, you are putting $$$ into unclepicks' pocket. :=)

Unclepicks bought it at 1.050, a ~40% gain in just 2 months time. Here's the achieve:

[24 Nov 2009] Impressive quarter-report 10.10sen
[11 Nov 2009] Bought 5000 LHH at 1.050
[27 Oct  2009] Discovered LHH, PLANNED FOR LHH

While many of you are getting more excited in buying BURSA stocks, unclepicks is relaxing and watching the show. Cheers ~

SCOMIMR U-TURNING ? BOUGHT 10,000 SCOMIMR at 0.405

Just spot a transacton selling 1,240 lots. Will the big boys keep selling later in the afternoon?
No doubt, now the retailers have come back to battle with the big boys.

Anything below 0.40 is a good price.

p/s: unclepicks is queuing too

UPDATE: Unclepicks bought 10,000 SCOMIMR at 0.405

Putting all your $$$ into a stock is sinful. Unclepicks has already bought into SCOMIMR, 15% of total fund. Thus, that marks the completion of the purchasing of SCOMIMR.

Never dream to catch the bottom. No one can do it.

Are you still greedy or afraid?

The ex-Prime Minister of Malaysia once said that malaysians tend to forget easily. "Forget" makes you and me change quite easily? From greed to cut loss? From cut loss to greed?

Look at the market, isn't it slowly dragging you to hell (i.e. Oil and Gas sector)? Are you seeing this as an opportunity or a dying market?

If you are fully invested, I bet you are now monitoring the technical indictors closely to trigger your cut loss.

As for unclepicks, unclepicks still have 60% $$$ to invest. The best time to accumulate is when the technical indicators crossing the danger lines.

Why not buying when people are selling? Look it from another perspecitve, any listed company has nothing change overnight(other than the stock price), when technical data (SMA, bollinger band, RSI) crossing the support or whatsoever lines.

Buy the stocks and wait for the technical investors to return. Unclepicks can wait for 3,5, or 10 years. Can you? If you are leveraged, please don't apply buy and hold theory.

Comments

Dear readers,

Thank you for your valuable comments.

However, due to time constraint, unclepicks could not reply to comments on 1 to 1 basis. Indirectly, your comments will be taken into consideration when writing new posts. So, feel free to write comments.

You can be assured that changes to the Portfolio will not be missed, and will be updated as soon as possible.


Unclepicks

SCOMIMR sharp fall

Some big players have been throwing SCOMIMR in recent weeks. Time to collect, to average down? No. Wait till these players completed their disposals 1st. Retailers who absorbed their stocks are not here to hold. (Speculators likely).

Two choices: 1) Wait until these big players to complete their disposals. 2) Safer way, wait for next quarter reports/news.

As long as the fundamental is still intact, there is no reason to sell it.

SOLD 10,000 YTLPOWR-WB @ 1.010

Sold 10,000 with profit ~4%, Remainding 5,000. Stocks holding now stood at ~38%. With 62% of cash, unclepicks is happy to see the bear in town :=)

Bursa View: The Dubai Effect

I bet you guys have already known well about the DUBAI news. In short, a Dubai state-owned conglomerate (Dubai World) has asked to defer some of its total debts of $59 billions loan repayments for 6 months. Unclepicks is not going to talk more about the boring story of the news(it's everywhere!), but what's the next thing to do.

Analysis
Thursday, world markets dipped, ~ -3%
Friday, europe markets recovered, some even up 1.6 %
Friday, DOW JONES closed at -1.48%, recovered from opening ~ -2.2 %

From the above data, we can expect that the markets can absorb the DUBAI news, without over aggressive correction or panic. We can expect that asian markets to follow europe's recovery during Monday open. (not for KLSE that escaped thursday's fall) :=)

Next
But but,  aren't that we are expecting a major correction, yet the markets have been moving sideline for months? So, we are going to experience a major correction in coming weeks, for real?

Unclepicks might dispose half of the ytlpowr-wb, and use the cash to collect other stocks ( stocks/sectors that indirectly dip by DUBAI news).

At the same time, please keep your cash vs stocks ratio healthy. We are going sideline, or slow-downturn for the next few weeks or months.

Unclepicks currently has only 47% of stocks. Out of 47% , 21% of  stocks (YTLPOWR) is defensive stock , which can be disposed easily. Ideally, 35% stocks is perfect at this time.

Warren Buffet once said, "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."


Collect all the way down (fearful), or up (greedy)? You can try to ask people around, majority people will tell you to stay away during downturn. Doesn't that contradict with what Warren Buffet is saying? Are you a better investor or Warren Buffet?
 
As usual, unclepicks will continue buying when others are fearful. Have an interesting monday :=)

Portfolio Review: YTLPOWR YTLPOWR-WB LHH and other Oil n Gas counters

At time of blogging, YTLPOWR mother and son, up slowly(2.24, 0.99) but definitely. LHH up(1.140). :=)

How about the other 3 Oil and Gas stocks in my portfolio? Crude oil has been in the down trend, (down from $81 to $76 ). Be patient, it's just a matter of time for them to rise again. Look at how Unclepicks collects YTLPOWR and how unclepicks collects Oil and Gas stocks. (in fact, going to collect more Oil and Gas!). Oil and Gas counters are considered hot picks, also investor's favorite, especially for oil producer country like Malaysia. Buy slowly along the dip and wait for the sentiment to come back.( Have you forgotten the Oil peak is somewhere around $150).

Let's dig into the history of oil. In 1956, M. King Hubbert suggested that oil production is bell-shaped like, and he predicted oil peak in year ~2020. To confirm his theory, unclepicks attached alaska oil production (peak:1988) and mexican oil production(peak:2004). Look at both the graphs, are you seeing what I am seeing? Bell-shaped graphs! If Hubbert is correct, we should see world oil production drop exponentially in about 10 years from now.

As long as oil price stays above $60 per barrel, there is no problem for these oil and gas companies to make reasonable profit.(In fact, handsome profit in future)

Unclepicks is here to stay at least for the next 30 years(est. average life span). Looking forward to witness M. King Hubbert's theory.

Portfolio [22/11/2009]

My portfolio. Just a quick touch on:- 
 
YTLPOWR/YTLPOWR-WB, accounted for almost 50% of total stocks purchased.
Latest quarter's profit (3.93sen) inline with my expectation. Not just that! YTL's wimax is teaming up with TM to roll out 4G nationwide next year.
 
“The 15-year agreement inked by the two brands will enable YTL Com to leverage on TM’s nationwide Wholesale Ethernet services while riding on the high speed broadband (HSBB) infrastructure"
 
This indeed a smart move. (yes! YTLPOWR is involved in YTL's WIMAX project too). At least, we know that it is going to be a lot faster than P1 Wimax.
 
When you have a high reputation gigantic company, joint with the most experienced broadband company, what is the outcome?  Can YTL com be another MAXIS in future?

Portfolio [1/11/2009]

Unclepicks' portfolio. Nothing to shout about. I'm happy with the amount of stocks I am holding. If the market goes uptrend, I am happy with the little gains. If market goes down, then unclepicks is happier! It's the perfect time to accumulate, but slowly. How slow? If you want to know, then visit unclepicks' blog more often :=)

US Market just reversed the gain from Thursday, down by -250! Can anyone predict that? A gap down on coming Monday? I guess speculators are now shivering on what to do on Monday. Still remember, unclepicks mentioned about the trend of penny stocks gamblers investors lately?  I hope the $$$ they bet earned from goreng penny stocks are enough to cover the losses.

Have a nice weekend :=)

Welcome to Uncle Ben's blog

I am launching my portfolio with initial capital of RM100,000.
In short, I will show you how my uncle style of investing works well in our BURSA market with steady return.

My investment strategy emphasizing on:-
1) buy and hold strategry
2) market/economy sentiments
3) stocks fundamental analysis

You might say you can beat me with your speculative or technical methods. I welcome you to compare your portfolio with mine. Time will tell  :=)