Flirting around 10,000 pts

Another week with DJIA flirting around 10,000pts. Locally, there is nothing much interesting, even DJIA is a lot more attractive than BURSA. Well, do nothing when there is nothing to do. :=)

Migration from Europe to US

1. Europe still very shaky. As mentioned, nothing can be changed overnight, not even ~$1 trillion.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idCALDE64D1PG20100514?rpc=44

2. US stocks: "Strong corporate balance sheets, rising profits, economic growth on an upswing and the Federal Reserve's pledge to keep interest rates low make Wall Street look like a good destination"
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/Outlook-rosy-for-US-stocks-thanks-to-euro-woes/articleshow/5934953.cms

3. Locally, we are looking at a better GDP growth, OPR increased. Stronger MYR
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/malaysia-q1-gdp-up-10.1pc-beats-forecast/

Give Europe some time to calm down. :=)

OPR, another 25 basis points increase today?

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/5/13/business/20100513110119&sec=business

No action.

chart from google finance

Stock Markets over the world uncontrollably skided and jumped. A head to head fight between Strength and Weakness? The fight has begun, nothing we need to do. Just wait for the dust to settle, before joining the game.

- European stock markets strongly recovered 5% to 9% yesterday, after falling for about 1 week.
- DJIA up ~400 pts yesterday, erased the big fall. ( the quarter earnings are solid)
- Europe crisis with ~$1 trillion injection. Wow..  well, nothing can be solved overnight.

Where we are at ?

We seem to perform a lot better than regional markets. Take a look at the chart above, BURSA is traded at 33.7% PER premium amongst its peers, highest since 2002.

Expensive? Better to take a step backward.

Ride the RCECAP again, BOUGHT 10,000 RCECAP @ 0.660, TRIMMED MYEG

Over the last few weeks, we have seen the strength of the DOW JONES. The Greece debt crisis is trying hard to defect the DOW JONES. As of today, DOW JONES is still standing strong, well defended by excellent quarter reports.

Now, in the month of May, it's the turn for the BURSA for quarter reports. Can BURSA keep up the momentum? With the recent mega projects(i.e. penang bridge II , LRT extension) on the headlines, will these excite the retailers to participate and goreng up the stocks? Unclepicks decided to add a little more. Bought RCECAP.

Not exposing too much stocks, Unclepicks also trimmed MYEG by 15,000 units @ 0.450 (BOUGHT 8/March/2010 @ 0.430). Left 10,000 units

Impressive quarter reports

Citigroup, IBM, GS, Coca-Cola, Apple and Yahoo all delivered impressive results.  Bull days are over? not quite..

Let's continue to monitor the market. Unclepicks is not buying nor selling at the moment. Portfolio carries ~60% stocks.

Interesting week ahead

Besides GS, the releasing of quarter reports will determine the fate of the markets. Let's watch. :=)

Flash back to November 2009

Let's flash back to the post that unclepicks wrote in November 2009.
http://unclepicks.blogspot.com/2009/11/portfolio-review-ytlpowr-ytlpowr-wb-lhh.html

Crude Oil, thumbs up!

Interesting article:
Oil price surges 17th month high

What's my stand?

DOW JONES is moving forward with steeper momentum this time compared to the uptrend last year (see chart). Bernanke has reaffirmed his stand again last month that the interest rate has to stay low for a lengthy period to counter unemployment rate..

On top of that, DOW JONES will be releasing financial quarter reports next month. We definitely will be seeing at least equivalent good or better quarter reports.

Moving east to Asian countries, we see some measurements have been taken to cure these countries from inflation. In another words, Asian economies are doing too well for too long, and not going to wait for the western countries for recovery.

Back home, Malaysia hiked its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) from 2.0 to 2.25 few weeks back. This step was taken to normalize the economy to calm down the strong economy growth. BNM expects a grow between 4.5-5.5% this year. Commodity like crude oil, cpo, rubber..etc. are back on high demand.

Well, we are still far away from the OPR rate of 3.5, which was steadily set before the economy crisis. OPR hike of just .25 is a long term remedy to slow down the economy growth. We won't feel it until a few doses being injected. (many months later...).

Unclepicks still thinks that the DOW JONES will further strengthen especially for the months of April-May, in conjunction with the quarter report releases. Also, locally, we will have New economic model (NEM) announcing end of the month. As usual, the big boss DJ will create a nice sentiment for the global markets to follow. Some small/mid caps in BURSA with solid fundamentals are gaining momentum, and quite attractive at the moment.

Let's hope there is no surprises, similar to Dubai or Greece problems happening in coming months.

Where are we heading?

Bursa raced for another +15 points last Friday after OPR was raised 25 basis point. Petrol subsidy system was scrapped. More good news are expected for the people, especially for East Malaysia as the Election is near  ;=)


On the other side, DOW JONES has been slowly marching to the NORTH. Positive jobs data released last Friday added another +122 points for the DOW. Unclepicks is optimistic. DOW JONES has to catch up with the strong financial quarter reports released last month.

Chinese New Year, a bargain hunting?

more data on fundamental improvement:

- U.S. unemployment rate falls to 9.7 percent
- Out of 314 S&P 500 companies, 74% beat analyst expectations.

OK, the giant definitely has enough fundamental data to show off that it is coming back on track.

Come back to BURSA,
The current global correction should serve as an adjustment to bring the equity markets back to the fundamental. We might not be seeing another superb run like in year 2009, but a better(slower) and brighter(economy stability) future for everyone  :=)

Unclepicks has ~45% cash. Target to accumulate again at ~1,200.

Wishing everyone a prosperous Chinese New Year.

Shelter on a rainy day

Highlights:
- U.S. ISM index continues to recover, at 6 year high.
- U.S. GDP rose 5.6%, at 6 years high.
- Obama unveil $3.8 trillion budget, record breaking deficit.
- US S&P 500: 78% of companies quarterly reports so far beat analysts' profit estimates.
- South Korea's export gain (47.1%), highest in 2 decades.

The world economy has rallied too fast and furious, and we are now looking at extremely good data. We definitely need tightening, interest rate hike, etc.

But, the bear is biting on the "tightening" as a reason for correction.

With these controls, we will still see economy improving at slower rate, and definitely not collapsing. The sentiment right now is at the fear side. At such condition, the stock market might take in the "tightening" as "bad bad news" aka "worst scenario".

The Shanghai Stock Exchange has dipped 10% from year-high.
DJIA dropped 7% from year-high.

Good opportunity to buy? Unclepicks will start to collect when time is right. Stay tune. :=)

Period of uncertainty, sudah potong?

During this period of uncertainty, unclepicks will not buy further, or sell further at the moment. There is no reason to be afraid of another slump like 2007 economy crisis.

Check this out, our Bursa is packed with lots of companies selling you at PE < 15. Who wants to put $$ into the bank with just 2.5% of interest????

Well, this is just another around of healthy correction (-5% to -10%) . Those TA investors are rushing out, just because the long awaited red sign (KLCI crossing the SMA 50 line) finally arrived.

Again, this is another opportunity to collect more, since the TA investors have left the game. They will definitely be back for next round. It might takes weeks or months. Be patience! :=)

The pre-CNY rally seems to be too short, and prices are not attractive to lock profit. No hurry, unclepicks will wait for next round.

Cheers~

A new breath today

 

FBMSCAP: Price Movement looks good for the bull to make a comeback.
                    Volume increase along with price rise.

DOW JONES futures up by +82 pts (at time of writing)

Unclepicks:
Hello mini-BULL, unclepicks will keep 40% cash for the bear, keep 60% stocks for the bull.

"One must have patience, one must have discipline, and also the wisdom to make decisions."

Rally is over?

Dow Jones closed sharply lower(-216 pts) on Friday. The cny-rally may be short lived.

If you are chasing the rally, good luck on coming Mon/Tues, as there might be possibly panic selling.

Let's see if the price is low enough for unclepicks to collect more.

Have a nice weekend.

Oil and Gas is coming!

After LHH (+55%), after HUAAN(+12%)... It's show time for TAS, MUHIBAH and SCOMIMR.

Not to forget YTLPOWR and IRIS also making profit!

Does unclepicks need to sit infront of the screen and chase the stocks? Just relax, and enjoy your life! :=)

China tightening again

China has been taking some measurements recently to tigthen/safeguard its country from asset bubble, rising inflation.

Today, we see another tightening on the bank lending, a move to slow down credit surging.

As expected, the SSE (shanghai stock exchange) and HSI (hangseng stock exchange) plunged.

Come back to our local market, Bursa dropped -5 pts at mid-day. The theme play remains intact with some SCORE counters and steel counters surging. (HUAAN surged 5%, look like the syndicates are not losing momentum) :=)

Bursa volume sustains at healthy region of 1-2 billions. US futures are healthy.

Bottom line: Stocks that unclepicks hold are fundamentally sound. If price is not attractive enough, why need to sell?

FBMSCAP babies

FBMKLCI (1st chart) vs FBMSCAP (2nd chart)

The rally for FBMKLCI is nothing compared with FBMSCAP. Look at how steep can FBMSCAP go. That explains why unclepicks portfolio is dominated by FBMSCAP counters. But, that does not mean unclepicks will always pick FBMSCAP counters in future.  :=) 

I like this quote that blends nicely into the current trend:

"The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." - Warren Buffett