Wow, all the ANA. recommended BUY. Let's see what they say about HUAAN:
"No significant cut in steel production in China"
"World steel production remains low"
"Building up stockpile to gain advantage in iron ore price negotiation"
"Hua-An’s balance sheet remains healthy (net cash of MYR34.7 mln as at Sep. 30, 2009)"
"Chinese government has taken various measures to address this problem, such as curbing capacity expansion in the steel and coke industries."
"Crude oil price (which has risen by 28.7% from an average of US$59.38/barrel in 2QFY12/09 to US$76.44/barrel currently) will boost selling prices of Sino Hua-An’s by products (i.e. tar oil and crude benzene)."
"Demand for metallurgical coke is likely to sustain into 4Q on the back of the recent steel price recovery"
Let's see how unclepicks say about HUAAN:
"Good to have ANA.'s recommendations, but don't fully trust them! They are not really into the future, but rely on past data!"
"pre-CNY rally should give a boost on HUAAN"
"Good if Tabung Haji continue to accumulate next year"
"A bored 4Q2009 should bring the itchy hands a.k.a. speculators back really soon."
After buying HUAAN, unclepicks' portfolio stood at 50% cash, 50% stocks.
Welcome to 2010. The pre-CNY rally has begun? Some stocks have rallied with > 5% gains in a day. Need to wait further to check if the rally is sustainable? Or need to wait for bad news for the market to pull back before buying?
Unclepicks chose to buy slowly but surely. No need to explain why unclepicks bought HUAAN. (you guys should know if you are following unclepicks' blog).
Why pick the legend speculation counter, IRIS? Take a look at its quarter reports, it has not made any losses since end of 2007. Moreover, it's pre-CNY. Those uncles and aunties surely miss IRIS alot. :=) And also, don't forget IRIS is involved in the PETROL subsidy project which will be launching somewhere next year.
How about SCOMIMR? Haha.. Did it dive down to hell, like LCL or OILCORP?
HUAAN price has gently dipped to 0.460 without much support from TH. If you take a closer look, TH has acquired the last 132,000 lots to make it a perfect 8.000% on 11 Dec. Since then, there is no further accumulation, and the price has started to shake and move south.
While TH might have completed its acquisition for the rest of the year. The big question is, is TH going to increase its stake next year? Without the support from TH, can HUAAN survive at current price?
Metallurgical coke price in city of Linyi, China has stabled at ~RMB1850 per ton since August till Dec 2009.( From external source).
As expected, HUAAN itself reported a stable margin of earning for month of Nov. (See attached pic)
Comments From the price movement, HUAAN is in the consolidating stage with little volume (esp. without TH). Let's just wait until we can see some support before going in.
The ex-Prime Minister of Malaysia once said that malaysians tend to forget easily. "Forget" makes you and me change quite easily? From greed to cut loss? From cut loss to greed?
Look at the market, isn't it slowly dragging you to hell (i.e. Oil and Gas sector)? Are you seeing this as an opportunity or a dying market?
If you are fully invested, I bet you are now monitoring the technical indictors closely to trigger your cut loss.
As for unclepicks, unclepicks still have 60% $$$ to invest. The best time to accumulate is when the technical indicators crossing the danger lines.
Why not buying when people are selling? Look it from another perspecitve, any listed company has nothing change overnight(other than the stock price), when technical data (SMA, bollinger band, RSI) crossing the support or whatsoever lines.
Buy the stocks and wait for the technical investors to return. Unclepicks can wait for 3,5, or 10 years. Can you? If you are leveraged, please don't apply buy and hold theory.
However, due to time constraint, unclepicks could not reply to comments on 1 to 1 basis. Indirectly, your comments will be taken into consideration when writing new posts. So, feel free to write comments.
You can be assured that changes to the Portfolio will not be missed, and will be updated as soon as possible.
August to October
- HUAAN was staying at the healthy level, 0.50 - 0.55
- LTH gave support periodically.
- HUAAN slipped to 0.47, due to pressure from Mr. CHINA President.
- LTH came to rescue and injected so much that it could bring HUAAN up to 0.56, above 0.55
- HUAAN slowly recovering from the strong dose, and settled down at 0.49 - 0.50
December - HUAAN again couldn't stay above 0.50, which LTH is comfortable with, and fell to 0.48. This time, the pressure came from Mr. Dubai and Mr. Santa
- Strong injection came in again recently, and the story continues...
Some big players have been throwing SCOMIMR in recent weeks. Time to collect, to average down? No. Wait till these players completed their disposals 1st. Retailers who absorbed their stocks are not here to hold. (Speculators likely).
Two choices: 1) Wait until these big players to complete their disposals. 2) Safer way, wait for next quarter reports/news.
As long as the fundamental is still intact, there is no reason to sell it.
BURSA usually sluggish on December. And usually, the recovery only starts on New Year, before rallying for Chinese New Year. Will this happen this time around when we have more public holidays, especially in M'sia?
Well, today, unclepicks is going to pick another counter. But, it's going to be NOT so fundamental cyclical counter from China, "HUAAN".
HUAAN is located at Linyi City, Shandong Province, China. Its principal activities are production and sale of metallurgical coke. (coal -> metallurgical coke) The metallurgical coke is then used as energy source for the manufacturing of steel. (Steel industry).
~ Speculator's favorite.
~ back to BLACK.
~ latest EPS 1.65 is enough to sustain the current price.
~ coke price has stablised
~ Strong support from tabung haji
~ China, driver of the global recovery
~ HUAAN, reacts to China's economy news.
~ Steels counters like MASTEEL, CSCSTEL are on bullish trend.
Thinking to buy TAS or SCOMIMR, but finally chosen SCOMIMR. Unclepicks now owns 20,000 SCOMIMR.
A short note on MUHIBAH,
MUHIBAH quarter report was bad, reporting a loss of (2.36 sen), mainly due to cost overrun from its YEMEN LNG PROJECT. Reason given was that the project has to extend time, due to tough weather conditions. However, it's other divisions, especially crane (FAVCO), and shipyard are doing above expectation $$. Also, the Yemen project is at final completion stage. The loss should be contained in FY2009, according to report. As the risks of MUHIBAH has increased, unclepicks will not collect more, but hold on with the existing holding.
At time of blogging, US future up ~53 pts, Europe markets up 1-2%. Dubai dust clearing?
Stock picks and comments presented are solely from author's personal opinions. The blog serves as a personal investment diary for the author to keep track of his stock performance. All readers are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before purchasing any stocks. The author shall under no circumstance be liable to user, and/or any third party for any lost profits or lost opportunity, indirect, watsoever damages.