China has been taking some measurements recently to tigthen/safeguard its country from asset bubble, rising inflation.
Today, we see another tightening on the bank lending, a move to slow down credit surging.
As expected, the SSE (shanghai stock exchange) and HSI (hangseng stock exchange) plunged.
Come back to our local market, Bursa dropped -5 pts at mid-day. The theme play remains intact with some SCORE counters and steel counters surging. (HUAAN surged 5%, look like the syndicates are not losing momentum) :=)
Bursa volume sustains at healthy region of 1-2 billions. US futures are healthy.
Bottom line: Stocks that unclepicks hold are fundamentally sound. If price is not attractive enough, why need to sell?
The rally for FBMKLCI is nothing compared with FBMSCAP. Look at how steep can FBMSCAP go. That explains why unclepicks portfolio is dominated by FBMSCAP counters. But, that does not mean unclepicks will always pick FBMSCAP counters in future. :=)
I like this quote that blends nicely into the current trend:
"The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." - Warren Buffett
You might be aware that unclepicks has not been picking up much stocks since 01 Jan 2010; the date when the rally started.
The reason is real simple, why buy when majority people are buying? No doubt, it's human nature to follow the crowd. But in stocks, you can't really be a winner, if you are just an ordinary people standing amongst the crowd.
So, what about Technical Analysis that tells you when to buy stocks? Technical analysis often comes too late, when they discovered the patterns of uptrend. The risk is a lot higher, as the patterns often show the gains of the past few days, which can be reversed easily. Not just that, some might be so stressful and have sleepless nights if the stocks they bought reversed.
Well, the bottom line: Technical analysis is for the full time techinical experts, and not for average joes like you and me.
LHH today went up high at 1.470, and came all the way down to 1.400. If you are buying today, I'm not sure if you are going to a winner or loser. The price has moved up so high but in so short time. However, one thing for sure, you are putting $$$ into unclepicks' pocket. :=)
Unclepicks bought it at 1.050, a ~40% gain in just 2 months time. Here's the achieve:
Raw indictors are useful, especially during bull run. Here are some...
- USD 'carry trade', massive liquidity injected into global equity markets last year. ( Ensure USD is stable, interest rate remains low )
- Bursa's health ( Ensure KLSE still maintain its momentum, absorb the good news, ignore the bad news )
- Asian equity markets ( Ensure no sudden sharp fall/bad news )
- US futures, Europe markets ( Keep an eye on them during bursa trading hours )
- Mega projects/merges annoucements from the Government. ( Good stuffs for 2010 )
- Commodity Prices ( Equity moves along with Commodity )
- Wind from east to west ( Ensure asian equity markets remain attractive to foreign funds )
Last but not least,
- pasar pagi stalls ( This place is good, very useful to find out the end of a bull cycle if you can hear bursa tips from them ) :=)
Finally, the good news is here. The bluechips have joined the rally! Unclepicks is waiting patiently for the durians to fall. There might be a selling pressure somewhere on coming Thursday (T+3), but unclepicks will keep the stocks till CNY.
See, as predicted, the "itchy hands" will return. Unclepicks now just needs to sit tight and waiting for the durians to fall :=)
In a Rodeo game, the rider needs to stay mounted on the bull for at least 8 seconds while the bull attempts to swing off the rider. The timing of 8 seconds is crucial to determine the victory.
In Bursa, the investor comes and ride on the bursa stocks for a certain time/days, while the stocks swing up and down trying to get rid of the sellers. The timing is also crucial to become a winner.
How good can you time the market? What if tomorrow, the market goes down unexpectedly?
There is no such thing called, "perfect timing", but a "potential good timing" is what an investor needs. Besides that, the most important factor is to know which rider and bull has the potential to stay more than 8 seconds.
So, Cow boys and cow girls, are you ready to ride the bursa-bull?
- Stronger CPO, Soyoil, Crude Oil. ( Oil & Gas counter!! )
- Small caps, mid caps rallying, big caps flat. ( the captain yet ready )
- DOW future up 36 pts. ( recovering from last friday's fall )
- Asian markets are mixed and flat. ( so so only, are malaysians over-excited? )
Unclepicks is comfortable with 50%-60% in stocks at the moment. No doubt, the pre-CNY rally has begun. Be sure to manage your risks. Cheers~
p/s: updating porfolio, will be available in online excel sheet soon.
Stock picks and comments presented are solely from author's personal opinions. The blog serves as a personal investment diary for the author to keep track of his stock performance. All readers are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before purchasing any stocks. The author shall under no circumstance be liable to user, and/or any third party for any lost profits or lost opportunity, indirect, watsoever damages.