SOLD 10,000 YTLPOWR-WB @ 1.010

Sold 10,000 with profit ~4%, Remainding 5,000. Stocks holding now stood at ~38%. With 62% of cash, unclepicks is happy to see the bear in town :=)

Bursa View: The Dubai Effect

I bet you guys have already known well about the DUBAI news. In short, a Dubai state-owned conglomerate (Dubai World) has asked to defer some of its total debts of $59 billions loan repayments for 6 months. Unclepicks is not going to talk more about the boring story of the news(it's everywhere!), but what's the next thing to do.

Analysis
Thursday, world markets dipped, ~ -3%
Friday, europe markets recovered, some even up 1.6 %
Friday, DOW JONES closed at -1.48%, recovered from opening ~ -2.2 %

From the above data, we can expect that the markets can absorb the DUBAI news, without over aggressive correction or panic. We can expect that asian markets to follow europe's recovery during Monday open. (not for KLSE that escaped thursday's fall) :=)

Next
But but,  aren't that we are expecting a major correction, yet the markets have been moving sideline for months? So, we are going to experience a major correction in coming weeks, for real?

Unclepicks might dispose half of the ytlpowr-wb, and use the cash to collect other stocks ( stocks/sectors that indirectly dip by DUBAI news).

At the same time, please keep your cash vs stocks ratio healthy. We are going sideline, or slow-downturn for the next few weeks or months.

Unclepicks currently has only 47% of stocks. Out of 47% , 21% of  stocks (YTLPOWR) is defensive stock , which can be disposed easily. Ideally, 35% stocks is perfect at this time.

Warren Buffet once said, "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."


Collect all the way down (fearful), or up (greedy)? You can try to ask people around, majority people will tell you to stay away during downturn. Doesn't that contradict with what Warren Buffet is saying? Are you a better investor or Warren Buffet?
 
As usual, unclepicks will continue buying when others are fearful. Have an interesting monday :=)

BOUGHT 5,000 SCOMIMR @ 0.505

Accumulate more.

Portfolio Review: YTLPOWR YTLPOWR-WB LHH and other Oil n Gas counters

At time of blogging, YTLPOWR mother and son, up slowly(2.24, 0.99) but definitely. LHH up(1.140). :=)

How about the other 3 Oil and Gas stocks in my portfolio? Crude oil has been in the down trend, (down from $81 to $76 ). Be patient, it's just a matter of time for them to rise again. Look at how Unclepicks collects YTLPOWR and how unclepicks collects Oil and Gas stocks. (in fact, going to collect more Oil and Gas!). Oil and Gas counters are considered hot picks, also investor's favorite, especially for oil producer country like Malaysia. Buy slowly along the dip and wait for the sentiment to come back.( Have you forgotten the Oil peak is somewhere around $150).

Let's dig into the history of oil. In 1956, M. King Hubbert suggested that oil production is bell-shaped like, and he predicted oil peak in year ~2020. To confirm his theory, unclepicks attached alaska oil production (peak:1988) and mexican oil production(peak:2004). Look at both the graphs, are you seeing what I am seeing? Bell-shaped graphs! If Hubbert is correct, we should see world oil production drop exponentially in about 10 years from now.

As long as oil price stays above $60 per barrel, there is no problem for these oil and gas companies to make reasonable profit.(In fact, handsome profit in future)

Unclepicks is here to stay at least for the next 30 years(est. average life span). Looking forward to witness M. King Hubbert's theory.

LHH, impressive quarter report 10.10sen

LHH just released its quarter report, 10.10 cents. $$$$, PE 1? Tomorrow gap up? hmm... not interested, just interested in the long run.

Warren Buffett once said, "only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years."

How about MAXIS? hmm.. unclepicks has a value for it, but when to buy? Stay tune :=)

Portfolio [22/11/2009]

My portfolio. Just a quick touch on:- 
 
YTLPOWR/YTLPOWR-WB, accounted for almost 50% of total stocks purchased.
Latest quarter's profit (3.93sen) inline with my expectation. Not just that! YTL's wimax is teaming up with TM to roll out 4G nationwide next year.
 
“The 15-year agreement inked by the two brands will enable YTL Com to leverage on TM’s nationwide Wholesale Ethernet services while riding on the high speed broadband (HSBB) infrastructure"
 
This indeed a smart move. (yes! YTLPOWR is involved in YTL's WIMAX project too). At least, we know that it is going to be a lot faster than P1 Wimax.
 
When you have a high reputation gigantic company, joint with the most experienced broadband company, what is the outcome?  Can YTL com be another MAXIS in future?

BOUGHT 15,000 YTLPOWR-WB @ 0.965

Unclepicks bought in YTLPOWR-WB, expecting quarter report (releasing today or tomorrow?) to be a good one.

Take a look at EPF, take a look at the bulk buying (YTLPOWR, also YTLPOWR-WB). Take a look at Top Volume List (WA!)  :=)

Why YTLPOWR-WB instead of YTLPOWR?
1. Warrant is not call-warrant. YTLPOWR-WB expires on 2018.
2. Premium = -0.91
3. Sustainable revenue, in fact, growing.
4. Warrant has the tendency to spike lots more than mother share in short term.
Unclepicks will sell in strength in 3 stages. :=)  45% stock vs 55% cash.

BOUGHT 5,000 SCOMIMR @ 0.555

SCOMIMR has been beaten down due to her mother: SCOMI's right issues. Unclepicks takes the opportunity to collect more.

Japan GDP rised to 4.8%. So how now BURSA? The news are flowing on the positive side, while investors are doubtful of the rally.

As for unclepicks, still the same. Collect slowly! stay tune :=)

BURSA Market View

Market is flat. Really, there is nothing to do. Be patience, hold and wait.. Let's just watch how unclepicks picks the fruits.

BOUGHT 5,000 LHH @ 1.050

Bought LHH. Wow.. HUAAN swing up and down. Are you on the right swing?

Bursa Market View

BURSA
- Penny stocks trend extends to technology stocks/red chips, no sign of giving up.
- Bluechips reluctant to fall below current level.
- Overall sentiment improving, more quarter results releasing next week.

DOW JONES closed above 10,000 pts
CHINA's revised GDP signals for further upside.

It was a exciting week for BURSA. Good and bad news were released and flooded the markets every alternate day. Markets reacted like a "tail chaser dog", chasing the directions without any destinations. At the end of the week, investors rather chose a "smarter way" by simply putting the drama aside. Then, come along more retail investors to join the game of penny stocks.

The sentiment is now improved, and there might be another rally led by the techonology stocks and red chips(i.e. HUAAN might go back to the black after 3 consecutive quarters of negative). Unclepicks is considering to increase his stocks holding to ~30%

Though unclepicks does not really like the penny stock led rally, as these stocks are highly speculated, and far from fundamental ground (not sustainable), this does not mean don't buy! Unclepicks is always the same; pick the gems, buy little at one time and control your holding of stocks! Remember, you gotta follow the market, you are not the boss.

Play safe @ Control your greed @ Manage your fear.

BOUGHT 5,000 MUHIBAH @ 1.150

Look at MUHIBBAH's business
- construction and concession (Commodity is improving)
- crane and marine ( Oil and Gas, performed well)
- The lost on 4Q08 was a one off kitchen-sinking exercise
- PE ~7.5, cheap cheap for a company like MUHIBAH
- EPF collecting.

At a bargain price of 1.150, buy and hold :=)

With the purchase of MUHIBAH, my stocks vs cash ratio stood at ~23% vs ~77%. Enough for now.

BOUGHT 5,000 SCOMIMR @ 0.575

 

SCOMIMR quarter results posted yesterday. Let me explain this in layman's terms.

Look at the quarter report:
NTA -> Company Asset -> all the way up 1.22 to 1.40 -> larger company now compared to 3 years ago
Quarter repot -> Profit -> Improving 1.45 to 3.48  -> making more $$$ now compared to 3 years ago
Revenue -> Total Sold Products -> Sustainable -> business as usual for the last 3 years

Look at the 5 years chart:
SCOMIMR has nothing change, but improving.
Let's do a simple math. Let's target in the next 5 years, what will be the price for SCOMIMR?
We can simply take the highest minus the lowest from the past 5 years chart (2.7 + 0.3) /2 = RM 1.50

Well, the above is just a quick scan through for a pontential good stock. :=)

Uncle picks calculated the Target Price, and the answer is RM1.00

BURSA Market View

US Economy Data, taken from http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/calendar/econ/current.asp

Markets are finding a reason to correct. Unfortunately, till date, US economy data performed better than expected. While BURSA going sideline, let's just do nothing, when there is nothing to do.

p/s: unclepicks is waiting for opportunity, i.e. any sharp fall (KLCI -20pts) or near to 1,200 to pick up more stocks till 20%-25% stock holding. Stay tune :=)

Portfolio [1/11/2009]

Unclepicks' portfolio. Nothing to shout about. I'm happy with the amount of stocks I am holding. If the market goes uptrend, I am happy with the little gains. If market goes down, then unclepicks is happier! It's the perfect time to accumulate, but slowly. How slow? If you want to know, then visit unclepicks' blog more often :=)

US Market just reversed the gain from Thursday, down by -250! Can anyone predict that? A gap down on coming Monday? I guess speculators are now shivering on what to do on Monday. Still remember, unclepicks mentioned about the trend of penny stocks gamblers investors lately?  I hope the $$$ they bet earned from goreng penny stocks are enough to cover the losses.

Have a nice weekend :=)