Period of uncertainty, sudah potong?

During this period of uncertainty, unclepicks will not buy further, or sell further at the moment. There is no reason to be afraid of another slump like 2007 economy crisis.

Check this out, our Bursa is packed with lots of companies selling you at PE < 15. Who wants to put $$ into the bank with just 2.5% of interest????

Well, this is just another around of healthy correction (-5% to -10%) . Those TA investors are rushing out, just because the long awaited red sign (KLCI crossing the SMA 50 line) finally arrived.

Again, this is another opportunity to collect more, since the TA investors have left the game. They will definitely be back for next round. It might takes weeks or months. Be patience! :=)

The pre-CNY rally seems to be too short, and prices are not attractive to lock profit. No hurry, unclepicks will wait for next round.

Cheers~

SOLD 10,000 TAS @ 0.690 TRANSFER TO 5,000 LHH @ 1.310

A bad financial quarter result from TAS. EPS is just 0.77, not even 1 sen. Dispose all. Top up LHH

SOLD 10,000 SCOMIMR @ 0.450, TRANSFER TO 6,000 FAVCO @ 0.745

 

 

Reasons:
FAVCO dropped more than SCOMIMR today
SCOMIMR has given dividend. FAVCO will be giving dividend soon.
Still have 20,000 SCOMIMR after selling.

A new breath today

 

FBMSCAP: Price Movement looks good for the bull to make a comeback.
                    Volume increase along with price rise.

DOW JONES futures up by +82 pts (at time of writing)

Unclepicks:
Hello mini-BULL, unclepicks will keep 40% cash for the bear, keep 60% stocks for the bull.

"One must have patience, one must have discipline, and also the wisdom to make decisions."

Rally is over?

Dow Jones closed sharply lower(-216 pts) on Friday. The cny-rally may be short lived.

If you are chasing the rally, good luck on coming Mon/Tues, as there might be possibly panic selling.

Let's see if the price is low enough for unclepicks to collect more.

Have a nice weekend.

BOUGHT 5,000 IJM-WC @ 1.200

 

- Construction sector, to be benefited from Malaysia New Economic Model to be tabled next month.

- Premium of ~11%, very cheap amongst construction counters.

- Ex date 2014

Happy investing ~ Hope BAC and C won't disappoint us tonite :=)

Oil and Gas is coming!

After LHH (+55%), after HUAAN(+12%)... It's show time for TAS, MUHIBAH and SCOMIMR.

Not to forget YTLPOWR and IRIS also making profit!

Does unclepicks need to sit infront of the screen and chase the stocks? Just relax, and enjoy your life! :=)

China tightening again

China has been taking some measurements recently to tigthen/safeguard its country from asset bubble, rising inflation.

Today, we see another tightening on the bank lending, a move to slow down credit surging.

As expected, the SSE (shanghai stock exchange) and HSI (hangseng stock exchange) plunged.

Come back to our local market, Bursa dropped -5 pts at mid-day. The theme play remains intact with some SCORE counters and steel counters surging. (HUAAN surged 5%, look like the syndicates are not losing momentum) :=)

Bursa volume sustains at healthy region of 1-2 billions. US futures are healthy.

Bottom line: Stocks that unclepicks hold are fundamentally sound. If price is not attractive enough, why need to sell?

FBMSCAP babies

FBMKLCI (1st chart) vs FBMSCAP (2nd chart)

The rally for FBMKLCI is nothing compared with FBMSCAP. Look at how steep can FBMSCAP go. That explains why unclepicks portfolio is dominated by FBMSCAP counters. But, that does not mean unclepicks will always pick FBMSCAP counters in future.  :=) 

I like this quote that blends nicely into the current trend:

"The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." - Warren Buffett

TAS Offshore, a gem or a sand?

There has been concern that the TAS balance sheet might be unhealthy, due to massive increase in trade and receivables and low cash on hand in previous quarter.

But.. but.. neither the stock performance nor announcement hints for unexpected events, like what LCL encountered.

Just recently on December 2009,  TAS Offshore delivered eighth vessel to Zakher Marine. And now, crude oil price stood at ~$83.

At this bullish market, nobody is going to talk about the receivables, but the earning!

Unclepicks chose to hold till the next quarter report before planning for next action. TAS quarter report will be out real soon, previous quarter released on 19/10/2009.

It's show time, Mr. Bursa!

Dear Mr. Bursa, you have two choices:-

1) - Malaysia Arson attacks.
    - China Bank bill yields increased.
    - US unemployment rate unexpectedly increased.
    - Japan, JAL airline may bankrupt in few weeks.

2) - Malaysia New economic model to be tabled next month.
    - China launches world's fastest train.
    - China exports rising ( 1st time in 14 months), imports soaring by 56 per cent from a year ago.

Which one you choose to react? Let's find out this week.
Remember, in bullish market, bad news will be ignored.

Update on HUAAN:
- Tabung Haji has started to collect HUAAN.  Thanks!  :=)
- China continues to release bullish economy news. Thanks again!   :=)

The journey with LHH $$$$, thanks to speculators

You might be aware that unclepicks has not been picking up much stocks since 01 Jan 2010; the date when the rally started.

The reason is real simple, why buy when majority people are buying? No doubt, it's human nature to follow the crowd. But in stocks, you can't really be a winner, if you are just an ordinary people standing amongst the crowd.

So, what about Technical Analysis that tells you when to buy stocks? Technical analysis often comes too late, when they discovered the patterns of uptrend. The risk is a lot higher, as the patterns often show the gains of the past few days, which can be reversed easily. Not just that, some might be so stressful and have sleepless nights if the stocks they bought reversed.

Well, the bottom line: Technical analysis is for the full time techinical experts, and not for average joes like you and me.

Take a look at Alex Lu's post today, a technical post:
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2010/01/lhh-speculative-play-developing.html

LHH today went up high at 1.470, and came all the way down to 1.400. If you are buying today, I'm not sure if you are going to a winner or loser. The price has moved up so high but in so short time. However, one thing for sure, you are putting $$$ into unclepicks' pocket. :=)

Unclepicks bought it at 1.050, a ~40% gain in just 2 months time. Here's the achieve:

[24 Nov 2009] Impressive quarter-report 10.10sen
[11 Nov 2009] Bought 5000 LHH at 1.050
[27 Oct  2009] Discovered LHH, PLANNED FOR LHH

While many of you are getting more excited in buying BURSA stocks, unclepicks is relaxing and watching the show. Cheers ~

BOUGHT 1,000 MAXIS @ 5.360

Bought in a titanic ship for long term hold. It's going to be flat today, as the small fishes are selling for contra gains.

Relax, just need to be alert

Raw indictors are useful, especially during bull run. Here are some...

- USD 'carry trade', massive liquidity injected into global equity markets last year. ( Ensure USD is stable, interest rate remains low )
- Bursa's health ( Ensure KLSE still maintain its momentum, absorb the good news, ignore the bad news )
- Asian equity markets ( Ensure no sudden sharp fall/bad news )
- US futures, Europe markets ( Keep an eye on them during bursa trading hours )
- Mega projects/merges annoucements from the Government. ( Good stuffs for 2010 )
- Commodity Prices ( Equity moves along with Commodity )
- Wind from east to west ( Ensure asian equity markets remain attractive to foreign funds )


Last but not least,

- pasar pagi stalls ( This place is good, very useful to find out the end of a bull cycle if you can hear bursa tips from them )  :=)

Waiting DURIANs to fall

Finally, the good news is here. The bluechips have joined the rally! Unclepicks is waiting patiently for the durians to fall. There might be a selling pressure somewhere on coming Thursday (T+3), but unclepicks will keep the stocks till CNY.

See, as predicted, the "itchy hands" will return. Unclepicks now just needs to sit tight and waiting for the durians to fall  :=)

Rodeo, the bursa bull game.

In a Rodeo game, the rider needs to stay mounted on the bull for at least 8 seconds while the bull attempts to swing off the rider. The timing of 8 seconds is crucial to determine the victory.

In Bursa, the investor comes and ride on the bursa stocks for a certain time/days, while the stocks swing up and down trying to get rid of the sellers. The timing is also crucial to become a winner.

How good can you time the market? What if tomorrow, the market goes down unexpectedly?

There is no such thing called, "perfect timing", but a "potential good timing" is what an investor needs. Besides that, the most important factor is to know which rider and bull has the potential to stay more than 8 seconds.


So, Cow boys and cow girls, are you ready to ride the bursa-bull?

Some data
- Stronger CPO, Soyoil, Crude Oil. ( Oil & Gas counter!! )
- Small caps, mid caps rallying, big caps flat. ( the captain yet ready )
- DOW future up 36 pts. ( recovering from last friday's fall )
- Asian markets are mixed and flat. ( so so only, are malaysians over-excited? )

Unclepicks is comfortable with 50%-60% in stocks at the moment. No doubt, the pre-CNY rally has begun.  Be sure to manage your risks. Cheers~

p/s: updating porfolio, will be available in online excel sheet soon.